The super rare Bitmonds of the second collection

Did the image and title catch your attention? Very good! But I have to give you a bad news: talking about the rarities of Bitmonds from the second collection right now is nonsense.

Yes, you got it right! And if you are now wondering why, I will tell you immediately with a couple of examples: at this moment believing that a Bitmonds of the second collection is rare is like believing that the late numbers of the lottery make sense, or that playing roulette and having two consecuitve red like outcomes then it will be easier to have a black like the next outcome. These things from a statistical point of view make no sense and I will try to explain the reason.
 
Both the extraction of the lottery numbers and the results of a roulette are called independent events. What does it mean? Simple let's imagine to bet on red, turn the roulette, what are the possible outcomes (suppose for a moment that there is no 0, but the reasoning is similar): red or black. At this point you choose: you want to be lucky, then imagine you got red like outcome, do you prefer bad luck? Then just think you got black like outcome. Well now you have a choice to play again or go home. In this case we choose to play again, we will still have the possibility to choose red or black. Saying that this bet is independent from the first one, simply means that the first has no influence on the second: that is, the two outcomes do not affect each other , so it makes no sense to think like 'if red came out now it's better to play black' just because each bet is as if it were a completely new game in which the outocomes of red or black have the same odds !!!

And now you're wondering: what does this have to do with Bitmonds? I will tell you now! The generations of Bitmonds are totally random, and each Bitmonds has the same probability of being generated compared to another. Furthermore, as we know, the colors of the second collection are 256. So we can imagine the process of generating a Bitmonds as the throwing of a dice with 256 faces and each face has the name of a Bitmonds. Is there also a relationship between one launch and another here? Absolutely not! So even in this subsequent launches are independent!

At the moment, then, we must take into account that about 8000 Bitmonds of the second collection have been generated, and when the generations will resume, assuming that they will be generated 500 Bitmonds per day (this hypothesis before the problems with paypal was satisfied) and that the second collection will go on for another year, we could see 182500 new Bitmonds generated (500*365)! Yes you got it right, we still have 182500 dice rolls available, where each rollo is independent from the previou one. Yes, I am telling you that still having such a huge number of launches available, the famous Crazy Stuff still has all the possibilities to finish in last position, as it could remain in first position as it could stop in the middle of the ranking. This nobody knows because the process is random.

With this I just wanted to make you understand that talking about rarity so early doesn't make any sense because with such a large number of launches anything can happen.

Don't believe it? Roll a 256-sided dice 182500 times doing a computer simulation and tell me if I wasn't right.

So pay attention to those who make absurd requests for their rare second collection Bitmonds, and if they insist let them read this article!
 
And what do you think of this article? Let me know in the comments below!

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